Now, keep in mind, I am a firm believer in marriage equality. I see no reason gays should not be allowed to marry (the cynic in me sees no reason gays should be denied the right to screw up their lives through marriage and divorce that straight people have, but that's for another post). However, I see two things happening here.
The first is that the Supes will uphold Proposition 8 as a valid amendment to the state Constitution. And I suspect part of it is the lead attorney for those seeking to strike it down. Yes, it's our old friend David Boise. Boise has biffed three precedent-setting cases. First was the M$ anti-trust trial. Next, he blew defending Shawn Fanning in the Napster trial, enabling the Content Mafia to come up with the DMCA and other intrusions of our rights. Then, he was Al Gore's lead when he tried to destroy the Constitution and take the Presidency away from Shrub. Boise's law firm is handling the SCO case that is attempting to shakedown and/or destroy Linux (the judge just denied lifting the arbitration stay with absolutely no valid reason whatsoever. It's all about who you know and who you blow).
So here's another big legal case, and Boise has a reputation for whiffing at the plate in these big ones (supposedly, a majorly connected Washington lawyer once said he had no idea how Boise could command the rates he did given how poor his trial record was). And he's leading the charge to revoke Proposition 8. Pardon me if I don't spring for a congratulatory hoagie just yet. (Boise is a smooth talker, but says some really off-putting stuff. A portion of an interview went like this: "What about critics who say that ... by filing this suit, you guys are circumventing the legislative process and attempting to cut off Democratic debate?" Boies: "Well, that’s the reason you have a Bill of Rights. You don’t want to place issues involving constitutional importance in the hands of a democracy. If you subscribed to that, you’d hardly need a Constitution." Now, Boise does have a point as far as, as Thomas Jefferson warned, "the tyranny of the majority". But given the country is getting a health care reform package that 83% of the populous oppose that is rife with favors and kickbacks rammed down our throat, that might have been worded better.)
I think Proposition 8 will be allowed to stand. And the clock will be ticking on it. What makes me say that? When California originally banned gay marriage, it was something like 67% in favor of banning it. Eight years later, Proposition 8 passes with 52%. That's a HUGE swing in public opinion for such a short time. And that was with the Mormon Church helping fund the astroturfing campaigns. Everyone is aware of the tricks now, and opinion continues to move towards marriage equality. I wouldn't be the least surprised if, next election, there is a ballot initiative to repeal Proposition 8, and it wins.
And that's how it should be. Admittedly, the courts are there to protect people from excessive law. But something like this, I like it better if the people decide something is okay instead of judicial fiat saying it's okay.