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Shift Happens

So, Mike Huckabee has decided not to seek the R's nomination for President after all.

Enjoy never coming back, Huckabee.

You think I jest.  I don't.  Huckabee was the R's biggest hope.  He was in tune with their ideas, had name recognition thanks to his TV show, all kinds of things that could save them from the other contenders that are left.  They wanted him to run.  But when your competition, Barack Obama, has a $1 bil war chest ready to go for re-election, it makes you think twice.

Actually, I don't think that's it.  The fact is, Obama is vulnerable to defeat in the 2012 elections.  When Obama first took office, he was a political juggernaut, pushing through the bailouts and health care reform.  Since the mid-terms, he's softened his stances and extended olive branches to a lot of people whose support he didn't need in 2008.  His epic PR win with killing Osama bin Laden is now being pushed from the front pages as the Mayo Clinic publicly declares the Medicade reform package is too complicated to be feasible.

(Side note:  while Obama may be pushing the Medicade package, Congress ginned it up, not him.  I mention this so I can be sarcastic -- whoa!  A bunch of lawyers in Congress who know nothing about an industry are trying to regulate it with something too bloated and complicated to work.  Aw, shit!  Say it ain't so!)

Huckabee, during the last poll, only had a 1% lead over his nearest competitor, Mitt Romney, and the field is so crowded and poll numbers split so evenly, he could have easily gotten it.  I'm not sure what it is, and I won't speculate, but the bottom line is, politicians don't do anything on the fly.  They check and recheck.  Huckabee has something that guarantees he's going to get squashed.  This isn't as simple as politics, he's got a TV show and stuff now.  It's not a matter of losing the election, it's a question of losing his livelihood.

The R's trouble stems from the Reagan 80's.  The R's were so sure of themselves (The Great Communicator, how Bush broke the six year cycle, etc.), they stagnated.  Now, they realize all the people who supported them have left or died and they have done nothing to bring new supporters in.  All the new supporters went to the D's who were reaching out to them (Obama got a lot of new support, but the bottom line is, they wouldn't have had that influx without Howard Dean, who, after his campaign flamed out, was put in charge of drumming up new enlistees.  He obviously succeeded).  The R's have set up a party for only the people they know, and a lot of them aren't showing up anymore, and they're seen as too stuffy and assholish for outsiders to consider.  Remember the great line in the movie Bullworth -- "Who else are you going to vote for?  The Republicans?"

So, who does that leave the R's with?  Remember, the R's have no money.  So whoever it is needs name recognition, a pre-existing support network, and enough money to not have to worry.  Let's take a look at the map....

Mitt Romney -- Is America ready for a Mormon President?  No.  Next?

Okay, you want more analysis?  Fine.  Romney only carried three states during the 2008 primaries, Nevada, Utah, and Massachuttes Massachusets Massachoosess Kennedyland.  The Mormon network's reach was revealed to be very limited, not only as far as the national primaries, but they had to overspend and overwork just to get Prop 8 passed in California.  Public opinion has turned towards marriage equality.  The Mormons with their fight are turning themselves into a political liability, and Romney will be guilty by association.  But without their network, he's dead in the water.  Strike that, he's dead in the water anyway.  But it makes his poll numbers look good, with all these names he can point to as ready to work for him and raise money as long as no one looks too closely at where he got the list from.  Romney will also get too much resistance from party die hards who will demand answers for his flipflopping on gay rights, gun rights, and abortion.  Stick a fork in his ass and turn him over, he's done.

Newt Gingrich -- Nope.  It's cute that he has some numbers, but Obama will hand him his ass if he runs.  Newt has too much stupidity in his history, even if you don't count his book 1945 (yeah, I read it.  What a train wreck.  When a character points out the Nazis know how to throw a good party, you are really asking to get hammered.  So many copies of the book were printed and returned, the publisher took a bath and had the books recycled into toilet paper.  I don't know about you, but I was already a step ahead of them at that point).

First of all, Gingrich has woman problems.  There was how he tried to get his wife to sign divorce papers while she was being prepped for surgery and doped to the tits (which also means it wouldn't have stood up in court.  What an asshole).  Two divorces and plenty of affairs.  He's also recently converted to Catholicism.  Yes, it's the world's biggest organized religion, but there's still a lot of bad blood between it and the rest of the world.  We have had ONE Catholic President in 234 years of American history.  The R's do have some new blood, and they will endorse anyone who isn't Gingrich, thanks to Gingrich opening his mouth and criticizing the House GOP's budget proposal.  Criticism happens all the time, but House R's are firing back, telling Gingrich to STFU.  That's not standard feuding, that's a warning shot -- you WILL need us talking about you in our home districts, and we WILL make you miserable.  He has nothing to offer in political trade with those currently sitting.  Nope, he's out.

Sarah Palin -- One of two that I think actually has a shot at the Presidential nomination for the R's, and the only one I think can actually put a fight with and possibly win against Obama.  Palin's war chest is large thanks to TV, her Q score is high, and lots of people will speak for her.  Her strength comes from presenting herself as a political outsider.  With Obama being in Washington for a few years, if she can dress his term as political business as usual, she can get the "We're fed up!" voters.

I personally would love to see this happen.  It's not that I think Palin would be a great President.  But she would basically be hijacking the party because they no longer has the money and presence to counter her, and all her support comes from without them.  Bricks will be shat.  Oh, yes, they will be shat.  I haven't been able to turn on the nightly news for laughs since the Reagan Administration (Star Wars, killer trees, ketchup as a vegetable, etc.).  Since I wind up paying for political stupidity no matter what through my taxes, I want some entertainment value out of this.  She will deal aces in that regard.

Ron Paul -- the dark horse candidate.  As the party continues to consume itself between Romney and Gingrich and Palin becomes more viable, people are going to vote with their feet.  Paul's support is nearly constant, so if those other numbers drop enough, he could pull it off.  However, he will never be President.  Things like his recent statement that he never would have voted for the Civil Rights Act.  Doesn't matter what his explanation is, a candidate who would refuse to support the Civil Rights Act vs. the first black President.  Nope, he's roadkill.

Donald Trump -- Yes, there are people who still think Trump can be President.  Usually, you have to eat something illegal to get that crazy.

The D's primary is already over.  Obama will be their nominee again.  The R's?  Oh, get your popcorn, this is gonna be fun!

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